Opposition to expanding Medicaid programs to cover more low-income individuals is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain amid growing public support for adoption across states, policy analysts say.
Ten years after the Affordable Care Act first allowed Medicaid programs to cover nearly all adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level—now roughly $15,000 for a single person in most states—all but 10 states have adopted the expansion. An estimated 1.9 million people in the states that haven’t expanded fall into what’s known as the Medicaid coverage gap, having incomes above their state’s eligibility for Medicaid but below the poverty level, according to KFF data.
North Carolina became the latest state to expand in 2023 with the help of Republicans who came on board after multiple unsuccessful attempts to overturn the ACA in the courts and the American Rescue Plan Act’s temporary fiscal incentive to states that haven’t yet expanded their Medicaid programs. The American Rescue Plan Act, signed into law in 2021, included $1.9 trillion in federal funding to respond to the public health and economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) introduced a proposal in January that would expand Medicaid to an additional 150,000 people in the state. But Republican leadership in the state legislature have vowed to block the legislation.
A vocal segment of Republicans across the country has long opposed Medicaid expansion over concerns about strains to state budgets, with many calling for requirements that individuals have a job to qualify for coverage.
While policy analysts predict a second Trump administration could lead to attempts to repeal or make cuts to Medicaid expansion, they say court wins supporting expansion, and voter demands for improved health access and affordability are likely to bring more bipartisan agreement on expanding Medicaid in the coming years.
“As long as the national situation stays status quo with the Affordable Care Act not being repealed or extensively trimmed or modified or reduced, I think it is very likely we will eventually get all 50 states on board,” said Patrick O’Mahen, an assistant professor of medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine.
Expansion Holdouts
Without more states adopting expansion, “there’s just these massive gaps in what Medicaid does in terms of health-care coverage for people,” said Matt Salo, founder and CEO of Salo Health Strategies and former executive director of the National Association of Medicaid Directors.
Coverage “can vary widely from state to state,” Salo said in an interview.
Medicaid expansion has succeeded in getting support when brought to voters via ballot initiatives in six states—Idaho, Maine, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Utah. But out of the 10 states that have yet to adopt expansion, only Florida and Wyoming have pathways for expanding Medicaid through ballot measures.
Elsewhere, “conservative Republican-controlled state legislatures seem to be the most common blocking mechanism,” said O’Mahen, whose research focuses on interactions between governments and health systems.
Kansas, Texas
Some Republicans have called for a hearing in Kansas on Kelly’s latest proposal. Last year, lawmakers left their legislative session without action on Kelly’s expansion proposal, despite the governor’s attempt to address Republican concerns by adding a work requirement, a tax on the Medicaid funding that hospitals receive to offset state costs, and allowing individuals to stay on private insurance while still receiving assistance from the state.
Kansas House Speaker Dan Hawkins (R) said in an emailed statement, “right now, the votes aren’t there to pass Medicaid expansion.” He added, though, there will be an opportunity to discuss the issue more when the House Health Committee holds a hearing on the proposal this legislative session.
“The facts remain though—Medicaid expansion siphons benefits away from the truly needy and disabled and gives them to a whole new population of able-bodied adults with other coverage options available … all on the backs of taxpayers,” Hawkins said.
A 2023 poll by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin found 76% of survey participants supported Medicaid expansion, with just 17% opposed.
But in the Lone Star State, where Republicans control both the governor’s office and legislature, the path toward expansion will likely be “longer given the depth of the ideological opposition,” said Jocelyn Guyer, senior managing director at Manatt Health.
For Tanner Aliff, policy director of the Right on Healthcare Initiative at the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation, health workforce shortages and rural populations’ difficulty accessing hospital care are more important issues for the state of Texas to address. More than 20 rural hospitals have closed in Texas over the past decade, according to the Texas Hospital Association.
“What’s the point of putting a Medicaid card in the hands of somebody that still has to travel 80 miles to the nearest critical access hospital just to wait in the ER,” Aliff said in an interview.
‘Here to Stay’
Despite the opposition, policy analysts and proponents of Medicaid expansion say it’s possible these holdout states will eventually come on board.
Roughly 76% of US adults included in a March 2023 KFF Health Tracking Poll said they had either a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view of the Medicaid program, and two-thirds of respondents living in the states that haven’t expanded their programs said they want their state to do so.
“The dominant sentiment, including among Republicans in places like North Carolina, is that the Affordable Care Act is here and it’s here to stay, and every single congressional effort to repeal, every single effort at litigation to get rid of it has failed,” Guyer said.
In North Carolina, Republicans like Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, who referred to himself as “one of the staunchest opponents to expanding Medicaid in North Carolina” for more than a decade, eventually changed his position. In a March 2023 op-ed, Berger argued the ACA and Medicaid expansion are “not going away, and refusing to accept that reality hurts North Carolinians and the state’s finances.”
“Medicaid expansion if implemented in a reasonable, responsible manner is a positive for state fiscal and healthcare policy,” Berger wrote at the time, citing the fact that the federal government pays for 90% of Medicaid expansions in states.
With former President Donald Trump currently the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, O’Mahen said a second Trump term likely means “legislation repealing the ACA’s Medicaid expansion and making deeper cuts to the program is very much on the table.”
During the Trump administration, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services broke from previous administrations by approving several Section 1115 waivers that conditioned Medicaid coverage on meeting work and reporting requirements—though courts later struck down many of these.
Despite some roadblocks to future efforts, universal expansion across the country is not an unlikely scenario, O’Mahen said.
“It becomes tougher and tougher for the holdouts to hang on because they can see that they’re leaving a lot of federal money on the table and everybody else is doing it,” he said.
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